Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
