A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
